Tools for Overcoming the Crisis Phenomena of the Pandemic in the Socio-economic Development of the Countries

The purpose of the study is to identify the specifics of the socio-economic development of the countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to determine effective tools for overcoming the crisis phenomena in the economy. The study of the growth rate of gross domestic product calculated by the expenditure method and the number of cases of coronavirus diseases were the grounds for sampling countries for the following analysis. The analysis of socio-economic indicators and identification of the development's specifics during the pandemic is carried out on the example of the United States, France, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, and Germany. Based on the analysis, the authors concluded that the least effective implementation of anti-COVID measures is in Italy and Spain, as a result of the lack of effective programs to support lending to the real sector, state support for companies in terms of maintaining employment, and making investments to support business. The German public administration system effectively used a package of anti-crisis measures based on the balance of increasing budget and extra-budgetary infusions into the economy, easing monetary policy, so the country managed to maintain investment activity at the pre-crisis level and create a serious basis for the subsequent recovery from the global economic crisis. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks that increase demand for goods consumed at home as well as the homes that those goods are consumed in. We first test the hypothesis empirically using US cross-county panel data and instrumental variables regressions. We find that counties where households spent more time at home experienced faster increases in house prices. We then study various pandemic shocks using a heterogeneous agent model with general equilibrium in housing markets. Stay-at-home shocks explain around half of the increase in model house prices in 2020. Lower mortgage rates explain around one third of the price rise, while unemployment shocks and fiscal stimulus have relatively small effects on house prices. We find that young households and first-time home buyers account for much of the increase in housing demand during the pandemic, but they are largely crowded out of the housing market by the equilibrium rise in house prices.

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.

Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development After COVID-19

The optimal taxation level and tax structure depend on numerous factors and enormously differ from country to country. However, the two mentioned tax policy instruments could ensure economic recovery and sustainable economic growth. This article aims to examine the effects of tax policy on economic development and evaluate the role of appropriate tax instruments in speeding up recovery. The results showed that tax level harms the GDP per capita growth rate in Central Europe and Baltic states over the 2000-2021 period. Another vital finding is the increase in both overall employment and investment to GDP ratio positively affected the real GDP per capita growth rates. In order to foster economic growth government might use tax cuts and other stimuli both for distortionary and non-distortionary taxes. The tax policy's institutional potential should be improved to neutralize the adverse effects of COVID-19 impact and enhance macroeconomic sustainability.

A Fiscal Perspective on Policy Responses to COVID-19: Evidence from the Emerging Economy of India

The COVID-19 health crisis became a global economic crisis with mitigation measures leading to a steep decline in economic activity, disrupting demand and supply. To attenuate the economic impact of the pandemic, monetary and fiscal policies were used by governments, central banks and supranational institutions. This article analyzes the implications of fiscal and monetary policies used in India in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on the country's public debt. India's adoption of a unique calibrated expenditure strategy through fiscal stimulus provided a cushion to mounting expenditure requirements in a scenario of falling government revenue. Widening fiscal deficits due to the increased need for fiscal spending on the one hand, and a decline in revenue generation owing to fall in economic activities on the other, saw a surge in India's public debt. Coordinated efforts by monetary and fiscal authorities through conventional and non-conventional measures added new dimensions to India's debt management strategy. The unprecedented magnitude of the crisis pushed the Government of India to relax its debt and deficit indicators until the economy can move back to normalcy.

Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis.

BACKGROUND: The rate of improvement in mortality slowed across many high-income countries after 2010. Following the 2007-08 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy was dominated by austerity as countries attempted to address perceived problems of growing state debt and government budget deficits. This study estimates the impact of austerity on mortality trends for 37 high-income countries between 2000 and 2019. METHODS: We fitted a suite of fixed-effects panel regression models to mortality data (period life expectancy, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-stratified mortality rates and lifespan variation). Austerity was measured using the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index (AAFI), Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), real indexed Government Expenditure, and Public Social Spending as a % of GDP. Sensitivity analyses varied the lag times, and confined the panel to economic downturns and to non-oil-dominated economies. RESULTS: Slower improvements, or deteriorations, in life expectancy and mortality trends were seen in the majority of countries, with the worst trends in England & Wales, Estonia, Iceland, Scotland, Slovenia, and the USA, with generally worse trends for females than males. Austerity was implemented across all countries for at least some time when measured by AAFI and CAPB, and for many countries across all four measures (and particularly after 2010). Austerity adversely impacted life expectancy, ASMR, age-specific mortality and lifespan variation trends when measured with Government Expenditure, Public Social Spending and CAPB, but not with AAFI. However, when the dataset was restricted to periods of economic downturn and in economies not dominated hydrocarbon production, all measures of austerity were found to reduce the rate of mortality improvement. INTERPRETATION: Stalled mortality trends and austerity are widespread phenomena across high-income countries. Austerity is likely to be a cause of stalled mortality trends. Governments should consider alternative economic policy approaches if these harmful population health impacts are to be avoided.

Fiscal Federalism and K–12 Education Funding: Policy Lessons from Two Educational Crises

We synthesize and critique federal fiscal policy during the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic. First, the amount of aid during both crises was inadequate to meet policy goals. Second, the mechanisms used to distribute funds were disconnected from policy goals and provided different levels of aid to districts with equivalent levels of economic disadvantage. Third, data tools are missing, making it difficult to understand whether funds were used to meet policy goals. Details for these results are provided along with policy recommendations.

COVID-19 and fiscal stimulus in South Asia: implications for resilience and sustainable development

The world continues to be gripped by COVID-19, though the pandemic's impact varies across countries and regions. The South Asian case is illustrative. The region is marked by inherent socioeconomic and other vulnerabilities, including high population density, relatively poor health care, and limited water sanitation facilities. South Asian countries also evince varied levels of damage from the pandemic. This chapter examines the region's circumstances as of November 2020, using macroeconomic data to explore varied pandemic impacts and fiscal policy responses. We also discuss the COVID-19 fund formed at the South Asian regional level with contributions from all eight South Asian countries. Our analysis includes each country's external and internal share of fiscal stimulus, and the implications for sustainable development goals. In an argument for integrating resilience and development frameworks, the chapter analyzes Japan's example of national resilience planning and related sustainable development frameworks. Our research indicates that a sustainable recovery is advantaged by fiscal stimulus that can be linked to extant developmental frameworks. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Slouching or speeding toward net zero? Evidence from COVID-19 energy-related stimulus policies in the G20.

This paper analyzes the size and nature of green fiscal stimulus in the G20 countries in response to the COVID-19 crisis, with a focus on the energy-related policies. We exploit a new dataset, the Energy Policy Tracker (EPT), with detailed information on countries' policies since the start of the pandemic. Between January 2020 and December 2021, G20 countries enacted 913 stimulus measures that have direct impacts on energy supply and demand. The average country spent $395 USD per person on energy-related policies. Only 30% of this amount, on average, is devoted to low-carbon measures, mostly in the transit and buildings sectors, with considerable variation across countries. To properly compare countries' efforts in aligning their COVID-19 stimulus with climate goals, we construct a new index, the Green Energy Policy Index (GEPI), using principal components analysis, taking into account both "green" and "brown" stimulus measures. The GEPI varies considerably across countries. We find that on average, countries with a "greener" energy-related stimulus are wealthier and have a lower emission intensity. On average, countries that have experienced the crisis more acutely, both in terms of deaths and gross domestic product (GDP) loss, have "greener" stimulus packages. We discuss the implications of these findings for future research and climate energy policy-making.

Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. We use loan-level microdata for all PPP loans and high-frequency administrative employment data to present three main findings. First, banks played an important role in mediating program targeting, which helps explain why some funds initially flowed to regions that were less adversely affected by the pandemic. Second, we exploit regional heterogeneity in lending relationships and individual firm-loan matched data to study the role of banks in explaining the employment effects of the PPP. We find the short- and medium-term employment effects of the program were small compared to the program's size. Third, many firms used the loans to make non-payroll fixed payments and build up savings buffers, which can account for small employment effects and likely reflects precautionary motives in the face of heightened uncertainty. Limited targeting in terms of who was eligible likely also led to many inframarginal firms receiving funds and to a low correlation between regional PPP funding and shock severity. Our findings illustrate how business liquidity support programs affect firm behavior and local economic activity, and how policy transmission depends on the agents delegated to deploy it.

Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development After COVID-19

The optimal taxation level and tax structure depend on numerous factors and enormously differ from country to country. However, the two mentioned tax policy instruments could ensure economic recovery and sustainable economic growth. This article aims to examine the effects of tax policy on economic development and evaluate the role of appropriate tax instruments in speeding up recovery. The results showed that tax level harms the GDP per capita growth rate in Central Europe and Baltic states over the 2000-2021 period. Another vital finding is the increase in both overall employment and investment to GDP ratio positively affected the real GDP per capita growth rates. In order to foster economic growth government might use tax cuts and other stimuli both for distortionary and non-distortionary taxes. The tax policy's institutional potential should be improved to neutralize the adverse effects of COVID-19 impact and enhance macroeconomic sustainability. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Problemy Ekorozwoju is the property of Faculty of Environmental Engineering and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Responses to the COVID-19 Economic Crisis: Challenges for Global Governance

The deepening economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has elicited extensive policy responses, but also raises daunting challenges for global governance. This policy-oriented article explores the new challenges for multilateralism, assesses efforts to coordinate these policy responses, and considers likely outcomes. © 2022 The authors.

Fiscal Stimulus and Firms' Sales and Capital Expenditure During the Global Financial Crisis.

Using firm-level data from the Refinitiv Datastream Worldscope database for more than 17,253 non-financial firms in 45 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity has affected firms' sales and capital expenditures during the global financial crisis. Cross-sectional analyses indicate that reductions in structural fiscal balances are associated with higher firms' sales and capital expenditures (as percentage of their total assets) in 2009. This result is obtained notably for the manufacturing and construction industries and for different regions depending on the firm performance variable. Our findings have key implications for the design of fiscal response to shocks at industry and firm levels, including during the current COVID-19 pandemic. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41294-021-00160-5.

Allocating fiscal stimulus during COVID-19 crisis based on sectoral linkages in Egypt for increasing growth and reducing unemployment

PurposeThis paper aims to study the inter-sectoral linkages in the Egyptian economy, to increase the efficiency of allocating L.E 100bn fiscal stimulus package (FSP) to tackle the economic fallout from COVID-19 based on the strength of the backward and forward linkages of various sectors, and the values of both employment and value-added multipliers. The paper also measures the impact of the new FSP on the capability of various sectors in creating job opportunities and increasing economic growth.Design/methodology/approachThe paper studies the intersectoral linkages by calculating backward and forward linkages index based on the latest input and output tables available for the Egyptian economy published in 2018. It also depends on a bivariate optimization model to distribute new investments allocated through the FSP based on the values of both employment and value-added multiplier for those sectors. The paper calculated both employment and value-added coefficients to measure the impact of the FSP on creating job opportunities and increasing growth rates.FindingsBased on the results of the empirical analysis, both key sectors (with strong backward and forward linkages) and sectors with strong backward linkages have the highest impact on creating job opportunities and increasing growth rates in the Egyptian economy, which means that allocating FSPs in a way which targets those sectors, especially during economic crisis, could help in increasing the positive impacts of those packages.Originality/valueThe paper is based on the unbalanced growth theory of Hirschman and uses the empirical analysis to study the intersectoral linkages and allocate new investments through FSP through different sectors. The main policy implication of the empirical results of this paper suggests targeting the key sectors and the sectors with strong backward linkages during tough economic times related to COVID-19, to increase the positive impact of the package on the whole economy.

COVID-19: facts, figures, estimated relationships and analysis.

This study attempts an integrated analysis of the health and economic aspects of COVID-19 that is based on publicly available data from a wide range of data sources. The analysis is done keeping in mind the close interaction between the health and economic shocks of COVID-19. The study combines descriptive and qualitative approaches using figures and graphs with quantitative methods that estimate the plotted relationships and econometric estimation that attempts to explain cross-country variation in COVID-19 incidence, deaths and 'case fatality rates'. The study seeks to answer a set of questions on COVID-19 such as: what are the economic effects of COVID-19, focussing on international inequality and global poverty? How effective was lockdown in curbing COVID-19? What was the effect of lockdown on economic growth? Did the stimulus packages work in delinking the health shocks from the economic ones? Did 'better governed countries' with greater public trust and those with superior health care fare better than others? Did countries that have experienced previous outbreaks such as SARS fare better than those who have not? The study provides mixed messages on the effectiveness of lockdowns in controlling COVID-19. While several countries, especially in the East Asia and Pacific region, have used it quite effectively recording low infection rates going into lockdown and staying low after the lockdown, the two spectacular failures are Brazil and India. In contrast to lockdown, the evidence on the effectiveness of stimulus programs in avoiding recession and promoting growth is unequivocal. The effectiveness is much greater in the case of emerging/developing economies than in the advanced economies. Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF need to work out a coordinated strategy to declare immediate debt relief and provide additional liquidity to the poorer economies to help them announce effective stimulus measures. COVID-19 will lead to a large increase in the global pool of those living in 'extreme poverty'. A poignant feature of our results is that while a significant share of health shocks from COVID-19 is borne by the advanced economies, the burden of 'COVID-19 poverty' will almost exclusively fall on two of the poorest regions, namely, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Estimating Employment Gains of the Proposed Infrastructure Stimulus Plan in Post-Covid-19 South Africa.

For the economic recovery in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic, South Africa announced the launch of an ambitious ZAR 2.3 trillion infrastructure investment plan. This paper uses a simplified yet reliable method to analyse the potential growth and employment effects of this stimulus plan. Based on lower and upper bound values of the country's estimated fiscal multipliers, we built a scenario prediction template with which output and employment expansion can be analysed within specified constraints on the fiscal space and the country's economic dynamics. Our estimation model suggests that with a 50% state participation in the recovery investment, the best case scenario of fiscal stimulation would enable the economy to create 2.23 million jobs over the first 5 years of the stimulus investments (of which 1.74 million would be attributed to the stimulus effect), while the more realistic scenario based of the lower bound value of the fiscal multiplier with only 30% state participation predicts the creation of 1.67 million additional jobs, of which 1.18 million would be attributable to the stimulus. Our analysis also suggests that investing in the types of infrastructure that shift the production technology could change the long-term growth trajectory, while focusing on employment-intensive investment may only generate temporary effects.

Pour stimuler la reprise économique à la suite des effets de la pandémie de COVID-19, le gouvernement de l'Afrique du Sud a annoncé le lancement d'un plan ambitieux visant à investir 2.300 milliards de rands (ZAR) dans les infrastructures. Cet article utilise une méthode simplifiée mais bien fiable pour analyser les effets potentiels de ce plan de relance sur la croissance économique et la création d'emploi. Sur base des valeurs limites inférieure et supérieure des multiplicateurs budgétaires estimés pour ce pays, nous avons construit un modèle de prévision de scénario avec lequel l'expansion de la production et de l'emploi peut être analysée dans le cadre de contraintes spécifiques sur l'espace budgétaire et la dynamique économique du pays. Notre modèle d'estimation suggère qu'avec une participation de 50% de l'État à ce plan d'investissements, le scénario le plus optimiste de stimulation budgétaire permettrait à l'économie de créer 2,23 millions d'emplois au cours des 5 premières années d' investissements (dont 1,74 million seraient attribués à l'effet de relance), tandis que le scénario plus réaliste basé sur la valeur limite inférieure du multiplicateur budgétaire avec seulement 30% de participation de l'État prédit la création de 1,67 million d'emplois supplémentaires, dont 1,18 million seraient attribuables à la relance. Notre analyse suggère également qu'investir dans les types d'infrastructure qui modifient la technologie de production pourrait modifier la trajectoire de croissance à long terme, tandis que se focaliser sur les investissements à forte intensité d'emploi ne peut générer que des effets temporaires.

COVID-19 Impact on SDGs and the Fiscal Measures: Case of Indonesia.

The implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have stretched far beyond human health and wellbeing, causing serious setbacks for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although governments worldwide have implemented different fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the implications of COVID-19, it is important to develop a precise understanding of their focus areas to ensure if the progress of SDGs is on track. For a specific case of Indonesia, this study establishes a thorough understanding of the COVID-19 implications on SDGs, and its fiscal stimulus package through a literature review and semi-formal interviews with the core stakeholders in Indonesia. The study results highlighted that COVID-19 has varyingly affected the progress of all SDGs in Indonesia. Amongst the four pillars of sustainable development in Indonesia, the SDGs on the social and economic development pillars are stated to be the most impacted. As for the fiscal stimulus, it is perceived that it can help maintain the SDGs' attainment progress to a certain extent, although there are several concerns on its implementation. Deriving lessons from the conducted research, the study puts forward key suggestions for the effective implementation of SDGs in the post-COVID-19 era.

A method to analyze the sectoral impact of Fiscal support for COVID-19 affected economies: The case of Oceania.

In this paper, we apply the method of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling in economics to ascertain how fiscal support measures such as wage subsidies, small business loans, and finance guarantee schemes have impacted at an economy-wide and sectoral level for 8 COVID-19 affected economies in Oceania. We model our scenarios based on IMF World economic outlook projections, combined with the fiscal stimulus packages offered to counter this global health pandemic's recessionary effect. Our study confirms that the adverse impact of COVID-19 on output is cushioned through a large fiscal stimulus package wherever offered. This package would still be inadequate to avoid unemployment and job losses in tourism and education services in Oceania, with continued support essential for their survival in 2021.•The approach entails steps (1) to (3), as outlined in the paper.•Future researchers will find this method useful in evaluating the adverse impact of not only COVID-19 but any other external shocks to the economy, either directly or indirectly, that involves fiscal support mechanisms.

An integrated approach to sustainable development, National Resilience, and COVID-19 responses: The case of Japan.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to historic economic fallout. To protect public health and stabilize incomes, governments have implemented massive fiscal stimulus packages. These fiscal supports are crucial, though there is concern that sustainable and resilient development will be sacrificed in the rush to preserve incomes and industries. The aim of the paper is to review whether the Japanese governments' responses in terms of financial stimulus considers longer term resilience and sustainability. This paper reviews pertinent academic literature and publicly available data from governments and organisations. The research is a rapid analysis of emerging information provided by the government of Japan and other international organisations. Using the case of Japan, this paper suggests that it is possible both to protect public health and essential services, while also promoting resilience and sustainability. Japan's integrated solutions show that pandemic response can include accelerated decarbonization and resilient, sustainable development. The paper also warns also that failure to act on long-term sustainability risks increased inequality, higher opportunity costs, cascading hazards, and further retreat from planetary thinking and globalism.